Will the Last Ones to the Recession Be the Last to Leave?

It seems Texas has arrived to the recessionJanuary. Economists forecast construction would drop
fashionably late, the question now is how long will weto a pace of around 450,000 units, according to
stay? The current economic woes began to be felt inThomson Reuters. Building permit applications, a key
some parts of the nation at the end of 2007, themeasure of future activity, also rose unexpectedly."
official beginning of this recession. Texas began toSome analysts found this news very encouraging and
feel the squeeze at the end of 2008, a full year later.went so far as to hope this could signal "some kind
Austin in particular has only recently started to feelof normalization" in the housing market. Home building
the economic pain that the rest of the country hashas certainly been one of the worst hit industries in
been experiencing for the last year. According to athis recession and Austin has felt that pain, too. But
recent Austin-American Statesman article, Texasthe Federal Reserve's recent decision to buy up more
could cut as much as 296,000 jobs in 2009,mortgage backed securities could stimulate lending
particularly in the previously booming sectors likeand get people borrowing again. The Fed's hope is
construction and financial services. Analysts predictthis will lead to more home loans on both existing
the state unemployment rate could go up to 8homes and new home starts.
percent.So where does all of this leave Austin? While jobs
Austin was looking recession-proof for most 2008are still being created in Texas, the workforce is
and the situation is hardly dire at this point, with a 6.4expanding. Austin is a great place to live and because
percent unemployment rate still under the nationalthe city has weathered the recession well so far,
average. But local economic analyst Angelos Angeloupeople are continuing to move here. This is good
predicts things will get worse and recovery will benews and bad news. In general the continual influx of
slow. "When you look at the stock market,new residents is good for the housing market. But
unemployment rates, job growth levels, thisAustin's dependence on high technology jobs is
economic downturn has put us back 15 or 20 years,"having an effect on the city's economy.
he said in the Austin-American Statesman recently.It is likely that Austin's unemployment rate will
He doesn't believe it will take decades for Austin tocontinue to rise. Analysts predict companies like Dell,
be booming again, but it won't be soon.Inc. will continue layoffs through 2009. As companies
There was some pleasant news about housing starts,streamline, Austin's high tech landscape is going to
which rose unexpectedly in February. According tolook somewhat different. But new industries are likely
the Associated Press, "the Commerce Departmentto come in and fill the void, particularly in the areas of
said new home construction rose to an annual rategreen technology.
of 583,000 in February from a revised 477,000 in